Thursday, March 28, 2024
 
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Pakistan: A Troubled State
Worries about Obama’s New Delhi sojourn




By Farooq Ganderbali




In the western narrative, Pakistan is the cowboy who should go after the bad guys. Till John Kerry, the US Secretary of State made his remarks in Islamabad in the second week of January, Islamabad could have continued to play ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban. But since the US read Islamabad the riot act, Pakistan has had to oblige. However, there is a deeper reason behind the supposed shift in Pak policy. That was Peshawar. It visibly demonstrated the make-believe world the Pak State lived in and the urgency of dealing with terrorism with a firm hand.



Countless Mullah Fazlullah’s and Hafiz Saeed’s walk free in Pakistan, courtesy, the ISI. But somewhere the Frankenstein monster created by late Gen. Zia-ul Haq is coming back to devour its master. That is the message that Peshawar sent to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who as an astute survivor, realised that the time had come to employ the only card in his pack, the military. This time by unleashing the military on the terrorists in any which way possible, for that is the “sword arm” of Pakistan!



The military is undoubtedly in the driving seat, but in the unenviable position of having to deal with its own creations, and those created by the legacy of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. To disown the very entities it raised, the Army will have to erase many a computer hard disks, both in the minds of men and machines. That will not happen overnight, and one awaits the results of catharsis within the ISI.


The game played by the ISI in the last several decades has had a blowback and has a visual impact now. Unfortunately, the realisation has not sunk in that with terror training camps in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir opposite the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir still being kept active, the Pak state only continues to walk down the old path.


The infirmity of the Pak establishment in being able to deal with the likes of Mullah Fazlullah and others and the efforts to militarise the anti-terrorism campaign, alongside employment of ‘harsh’ measures, like executions of terrorists shows that Pakistan has made a difficult choice to bite the bullet. That in itself does not mean that terrorism can be controlled or wiped out.



Any state which undertakes a counter-terror campaign based on hard power will face challenges. Thus far, of course, Pakistan has had the backing of civil society in actions thus enacted. Sustaining an anti-terror campaign therefore, requires taking all sections into confidence so that it does not run the risk of human rights agencies terming the efforts of the State as being anti-human rights.



When Secretary of State John Kerry delivered his sermon in Islamabad on 13 January, he must have done so with a heavy heart, because as is well known, he is a Pakistan supporter! That of course does not take away from the essential point he made about Islamabad denying terrorists the space to operate in. Obviously, it is because the Pak state gave terrorists (read Lashkar-e-Tayyiba) room to operate that they could accomplish the Mumbai attack in 2008. Therefore, Kerry’s message was refreshing in that Washington appears to have seen reason in New Delhi’s refrain that Pak-based terrorists are a threat not only to India, but to other countries in the region, including Afghanistan and China.



Of course, from Washington’s perspective, the Pakistan situation is closely linked to Afghanistan. Stability in Pakistan is vital for stability in its western neighbour. That terrorism persists in both Pakistan and Afghanistan worries Washington. The urgency of Washington’s message also seems to have emerged from President Barack Obama’s India visit to attend the Republic Day parade. The overall impact of the Kerry missive is going to be minimal, but with Nawaz Sharif having decided to ban the Haqqani network and Jamat-ud Dawa, questions do arise if Kerry has agreed to a quick stopover by Obama in Islamabad.



From a Pak perspective, the Obama presidential visit to New Delhi is Islamabad’s worst nightmare, as they see Washington possibly de-hyphenating the India and Pakistan relation. Therefore, it remains to be seen as to how far Islamabad will go before they feel that no more can be done. As of now, the anti-terror card is the only one they have in their kitty. They can’t promise much in terms of the Afghan situation as the Quetta Shura itself appears to be cracking. Sending Mullah Omar a message from Rawalpindi GHQ is not like in the old days, when he would do ISI’s bidding. Now there are other players whose voice is rising above the chorus and they will be heard sooner than later.


The United States will have to work on a new template on terrorism. That is the message of the Peshawar school attack. That is also the message that needs to be seen in New Delhi. Perhaps Prime Minister Narendra Modi may do well by first thanking President Obama for Kerry’s message to Islamabad before joining the international band-wagon against the ISIS. The only difference of course, is that fighting terrorism in the Af-Pak region can be done without putting boots on the ground, it may well be a trifle more difficult doing the same in Iraq.



(Opinions expressed in write-ups/articles/Letters are the sole responsibility of the authors and they may not represent the scoopnews.in)


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