Friday, March 29, 2024
 
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INDIA- PAK TALK : Skepticism laced with cautious optimism




Farooq Ganderbali



Ever since the SAARC summit in Nepal where Indian Prime Minister Modi had a brief dialogue with his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif reports were circulating that New Delhi would resume the composite dialogue that had been scrapped after the Pakistan High Commissioner had met the Hurriyat leaders ignoring South Block’s advisory.

Among the preconditions for a resumption of the dialogue, Modi had insisted that Pakistan take active steps to bring the perpetrators of the Mumbai’s 26/11 attack – Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi and Hafiz Saeed of the Lashkar-e-Toiba/Jamaat ud Dawa -- to justice for masterminding the attack.


The case against Lakhvi has moved from the Terrorism Court to the Islamabad High Court with assurances that it would be fast-tracked. To date there has been no hearing in the High Court because the files are with the Terrorism Court. Along with Lakhvi, six others are standing trial for the Mumbai attack. Many of them are operatives/agents of the powerful Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence. It is very unlikely that this institution that had connived in hiding the world’s most wanted man Osama bin Laden in the Abbotabad cantonment would allow its “strategic assets” to be neutralized.


In recent weeks, largely because of the attack on the Army School in Peshawar by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as Pakistan Taliban, the Pakistan Army once again captured the centre stage of politics in Pakistan, effectively sidelining the democratically elected PML-N government. It is a measure of the erosion/ stifling of its political power the Nawaz Sharif government has had to admit that he would not be in a position to take action against Hafiz Saeed as per the requirements of the UN blacklist of terrorists and their front organizations. That the terrorists of all hues and their organizations are enjoying complete freedom of speech and movement is clear from the recent huge gathering addressed by Hafiz Saeed on Kashmir Day.



On its part the Nawaz government does not want more trouble from the extremists; it is determined to tread softly. It doesn’t want to provoke extremist fringe since it knows that the military is backing them, and it would be at the receiving end in the event of a showdown.



Proof of that is in the almost daily provocative ceasefire violations along the International Border (IB) and the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir Theater. The ceasefire violations have intensified after Gen Raheel took over the reins of Pak Army. It is one give away that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has given his Army Chief a free hand for operations along the borders, ignoring India’s insistence that ceasefire must hold as a pre-condition for resumption of dialogue. Now the Modi government has decided to resume the dialogue without ensuring that any of its pre-conditions have been met. It will only serve to embolden the Pakistan Amy in its attacks on Jammu and Kashmir.



Indian expectations of improvement in trade relations and the extension of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment under a suitable camouflage that will not provoke the extremist factions remains in a state of limbo; this is clearly illustrated by the recent recurrence of cross border drug trafficking by Pakistani drivers bringing goods into Kashmir. There is no failsafe guarantee that it will not happen again. India has had to scout around for a ‘full body scanner’ to be able to detect narcotics and contraband without having to open every box in the truck.



In so far India’s overland trade with Afghanistan is concerned, this wish is going to remain a mirage. The Sharif Government is soft peddling all contacts with India in deference to Hafiz Saeed’s whims and fancies.



Much the same will happen to the proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) oil and gas pipeline that will traverse part of Afghanistan which is easily accessible to the Afghan Taliban of Haqqani tribe and other ISI-supported Islamic fundamentalists operating on both sides of the Durand Line. If they interfere with the construction work or the pipelines after installation, it would not come as a surprise since Pakistan is unable to ensure the safety of its very own gas pipelines from Baluchistan’s Sui Gas Fields to Lahore, for instance.

Almost every month one part or the other of the pipeline network is blown up by the Balochistan National Army (BNA) insurgents. Because the Pakistanis fervently believe that India supports the BLA the possibility of a tit for tat to hit the TAPI network cannot be ruled out with any certainty.

So, what is the message as India embarks on its walk the talk with Pakistan once again? Well, it is that abundant skepticism should be laced with cautious optimism on the possibility of a substantial improvement in Indo-Pak relations.




(The author is a Freelance Journalist and columnist)


(Opinions expressed in write-ups/articles/Letters are the sole responsibility of the authors and they may not represent the Scoop News)



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