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| Why did Modi lose Bihar? | | 
By Amit Kushari
Modi’s defeat in Bihar came as a rude shock to many political observers but frankly I was not very surprised. Two weeks ago, in my article titled, “Tough Times Ahead For Modi”, I had expressed my apprehension that unless BJP improves its vote percentage over 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it could be defeated in 150 seats in Bihar. When the results came out it was clear that BJP+ had been defeated by the Mahagathbandhan in 178 seats! Obviously BJP was unable to maintain its vote percentage in Bihar, and compared to 2014 had slid downwards by 5% votes. In Lok Sabha 2014, JDU and RJD+ fought separately and so BJP could subjugate the opposition in 172 seats and 31 Lok Sabha seats. Had JDU, RJD and Congress fought together in 2014, BJP+ would have won in 94 seats. Due to 5% loss of votes BJP has come down from 94 to 58.
Why did BJP slide down in 18 months although it had claimed to give development oriented good governance in the last 18 months? Many assumptions made by BJP were inherently wrong. The caste arithmetic for Hindus went wrong for BJP. The non Hindus didn’t vote for BJP either in 2014 or in 2015. They were not expected to vote also for an RSS backed party like BJP. So they were never a factor at all. So it was quite unnecessary for BJP to raise issues like cow slaughter. Hindus are against cow slaughter undoubtedly but a Yadav or Kurmi voter or a scheduled caste voter or another OBC voter doesn’t have any reason to vote for BJP on such issues. It was an internal war between different Hindu castes and everyone is anti cow slaughter in a cow belt area like Bihar where the cow is revered like a mother. Cow slaughter could have been a strong instrument for preventing Hindu voters from voting for Muslim parties like Muslim League or MIM. But in Bihar this was not the scenario. All the relevant voters were Hindus and all the parties were Hindu dominated parties. Since Hindu society is deeply divided on caste lines everywhere (except Bengal), BJP should have given more emphasis on wooing of OBC voters who were expected to vote for Mahagathbandhan. They should have gone all out to tell the OBCs that BJP was the mother protector of all OBCs and Scheduled castes. On the contrary, the RSS chief made an unnecessary comment that provisions of reservations should be revisited. This was like dropping a bombshell over the Bihari voters. Although immediate damage control was attempted, BJP became a suspect in the eyes of the OBC/SC voters. Luckily for BJP most Bihari voters are illiterate and ignorant and they might not have heard about the RSS chief. Even then, I feel 2-3 % BJP voters might have exited BJP because of this inappropriate remark.
Policy makers in BJP must realise that Hinduism is a spiritual religion. It is not a political religion like Islam or Judaism or ancient Christianity. Hindus are a deeply divided society and religion cannot bind them normally, unless there is a serious aggression from an external non Hindu force. Electoral caste arithmetic is, therefore, of prime importance. Poet Iqbal had said that Religion can never be separated from politics (Judaa ho agar deen siyasat se, reh jaati hai changezi) but this dictum is true only for Muslims and Jews— not for Hindus.
To win elections in a big pluralistic country like India which is almost 60% poverty stricken, the pro business, pro Capitalist outlook of BJP is not likely to find much favour with the poor masses. It may find some resonance in West Indian states like Gujrat, Punjab, Jammu, Maharashtra, Rajasthan but they will not find much support in Eastern and Southern India as well as the poorer parts of North India like UP and Bihar. Lok Sabha elections of 2014 were fought under different circumstances. The whole country was fighting against the corrupt and tyrannical regime of the Congress at that time, and Modi appeared to be the only leader who could save them from the clutches of the Congress party. Overnight he became ‘Hindu hriday samrat'( ruler of Hindu hearts). In 18 months that image has eroded. The poor people have felt that Modi government didn’t care for the farmers, the workers, the employees and was trying to benefit only the businessmen for setting up their factories. The government attempt to acquire land from the farmers without hassles to set up big industries was nixed by the Opposition dominated Rajya Sabha and the Government had to back out under pressure .The employees are also very suspicious of the BJP government now. Their dearness allowance exceeded 50% around 2 years back and now it is touching 119 %—-but still their DA has not been merged with their basic pay.The Congress government had decided to merge the DA with the basic pay but had to vacate office soon thereafter. Eighteen months have passed after that but the BJP govt. didn’t issue the orders. The bank deposit rates are being lowered again and again to give a boost to investors but the middle classes are suffering due to this. All these small factors, which appeared to be unimportant added up to the 5% loss in votes. We have seen what disastrous consequences it had on the BJP. If LPG subsidy is also withdrawn another 5% votes could be eroded across whole of India.The stupid ads of the petroleum ministry urging people to give up subsidy are damaging BJP on a daily basis.
The top brass of the BJP is trying to do ‘atmamanthan’ (self appraisal) to correct their mistakes. But will they be able to cure their own malady? It seems very unlikely to me because they will have to change their basic philosiphies or DNA. They would have to get rid of their Hindu mind set and right leaning ideology. They would have to shift to the central part of the spectrum and adopt a more secular posture. In a diverse impoverished country like India this is the only mantra of success which Congress had realised 60 years ago.
(Amit Kushari (IAS Retd) is former Financial Commissioner, J&K,Feedback to the author at 09748635185 or [email protected] or tweet @amitkushari
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