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| When is the Right Time to Liberate PoJK? | | 
By Fatima Baloch
The original princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, which included Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Bhimber, Rawalakot, and Sudhnoti, was divided between India and Pakistan in 1947–48. Today, the people of Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK), mobilized by the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), are protesting for a combination of economic, political, and governance-related reasons, while Pakistan is allegedly suppressing these protests.
Leaders of the ruling BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), along with key Kashmiri political figures such as Ravinder Raina and Farooq Abdullah, have warned Pakistan over its handling of the situation. On 9 June 2026, India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) publicly expressed concern over reports of a deadly crackdown on protesters in PoJK and criticized Pakistan for what it described as "severe state brutality." MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated that several protesters had reportedly been killed and many injured and expressed hope that the international community would hold Pakistan accountable for alleged abuses.
In the context of the ongoing uprising in PoJK, protests, and Pakistan's actions against demonstrators, some Indian journalists, geopolitical experts, and defence analysts have recommended direct Indian military intervention to liberate PoJK. However, Indian national security planners and policymakers should carefully review the historical circumstances surrounding Pakistan's occupation of parts of Jammu and Kashmir, the events that led to the disintegration of Pakistan in 1971, and the current regional situation.
Indian policymakers should also assess the ongoing Afghanistan–Pakistan tensions, unrest in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, where the Pakistani military faces challenges from both the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and the long-term objectives of these groups. Particular attention should be paid to the TTP's reported expansion into PoJK, as on 24 December 2025 the TTP announced an organizational structure extending into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, including Gilgit-Baltistan.
With British support, the All-India Muslim League was established in Dhaka in 1906 in opposition to the Indian National Congress (INC). According to this perspective, the British encouraged Hindu–Muslim divisions as part of their policy of "divide and rule" and facilitated the eventual creation of Pakistan in the name of religion. While many Indian freedom fighters faced imprisonment and execution, Pakistan emerged on 14 August 1947 under the framework of the Two-Nation Theory, which, according to many critics, was later discredited by the creation of Bangladesh in 1971.
Following its creation, Pakistan attacked Jammu and Kashmir on 22 October 1947 on the grounds that Kashmir was a Muslim-majority region and therefore should join Pakistan. Pakistan later occupied parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Subsequently, Pakistan invaded Balochistan on 27 March 1948. Balochistan had declared independence on 12 August 1947, and after approximately nine months Pakistan incorporated the territory by force. It is also noteworthy that India did not seek to occupy Hindu-majority areas that remained within Pakistan, such as Umerkot, Naukot, and Mithi in the Tharparkar region. The word "Sindh" continues to appear in India's national anthem. Prior to Partition, Sindh was a province of British India and remained part of undivided India until 1947.
Soon after its creation, Pakistan entered into conflict with India over Kashmir. Over the decades, Pakistan fought multiple wars and pursued policies aimed at securing control over the entire region of Jammu and Kashmir. According to Indian security assessments, Pakistan adopted a strategy often described as "bleeding India with a thousand cuts" by supporting proxy warfare and militant activities. Numerous terrorist incidents in Kashmir, Mumbai, the National Capital Region, and other Indian cities have been attributed to Pakistan-backed groups. These developments adversely affected ordinary Kashmiris, particularly in areas such as tourism and economic development. Critics further argue that prolonged Pakistani control over PoJK resulted in the political and ideological radicalization of sections of the population and fostered anti-India sentiment.
Notably, Pakistan was created with substantial support from Bengali Muslims, who actively participated in the Pakistan Movement. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was involved in Muslim League student politics during his youth, and thousands of students, teachers, and religious scholars supported the creation of Pakistan. Consequently, Bengalis initially possessed a strong sense of attachment to the new state. However, relations between East and West Pakistan deteriorated over time. During the Bhasha Andolan (Language Movement) of 1952, Bengali protesters demanded recognition of Bengali as an official state language. The movement intensified political grievances and contributed to growing dissatisfaction among Bengalis, many of whom felt marginalized politically and economically.
Following the 1970 elections, political tensions escalated dramatically. The Pakistani state launched military operations in East Pakistan, leading to widespread violence, displacement, and the outbreak of civil war. During Operation Searchlight, large numbers of people were killed, and extensive human rights abuses were reported. India did not intervene immediately. Instead, it provided support to Bengali resistance groups, including the Mukti Bahini. After a prolonged period of conflict, India intervened militarily in 1971, resulting in the surrender of approximately 93,000 Pakistani military personnel and the creation of Bangladesh. The emergence of Bangladesh fundamentally challenged the foundations of the Two-Nation Theory.
If Pakistan did not hesitate to use force against Bengalis, who played a central role in creating Pakistan, many observers question how it will respond to dissent in PoJK. According to this perspective, Pakistan has already begun using force against Kashmiri protesters associated with the JAAC movement. Supporters of this argument contend that PoJK is an integral part of India and that India ultimately retains both a strategic interest and a responsibility toward the region. However, India should not act hastily. Instead, it should carefully assess developments on the ground and ensure that the people of PoJK fully understand the political realities and consequences of Pakistan's actions before any major decision regarding the future of the region is undertaken.
Conclusion: The unrest in PoJK, the ongoing Afghanistan–Pakistan tensions, the rise of the TTP, and the resilience of the Baloch movement highlight Pakistan's deepening internal and external challenges. These developments also underscore the strategic complexities facing South Asia. In the context of PoJK, India should continue diplomatic support for the people it regards as its nationals while drawing international attention to developments in the region. Indian policymakers should also recognize that Pakistan could face serious internal instability if pressures from the TTP and BLA continue to intensify, potentially creating security challenges for India, China, and the wider region.
In such circumstances, diplomatic engagement with China could emphasize that instability in PoJK presents risks to regional security, including Chinese interests. Likewise, engagement with secular Baloch nationalist groups may form part of a broader long-term regional strategy. India, as a neighbouring power, may seek to prevent any future conflict from evolving into a prolonged humanitarian crisis. Drawing lessons from 1971, India may evaluate a range of strategic, diplomatic, and security options in response to regional developments. Within the context of Afghanistan–Pakistan tensions, India may also consider expanding its engagement with Afghanistan and preparing contingency plans concerning the future of PoJK in the event of significant instability within Pakistan. Greater regional cooperation could potentially reshape geopolitical dynamics, weaken strategic vulnerabilities, strengthen India's position regarding PoJK, and improve access to Central Asia.
The ongoing conflicts, political repression, and instability in the region continue to influence regional security and international perceptions. Advocates of Baloch self-determination argue that meaningful diplomatic and humanitarian attention should be directed toward the Baloch issue in the interests of justice, stability, and long-term peace.
Given the evolving regional environment, India should continue preparing long-term strategic and diplomatic responses. Future developments in Pakistan, Balochistan, Afghanistan, and PoJK could significantly reshape the balance of power in South Asia and influence the region's security architecture for decades to come.
About the Author Fatima Baloch is a senior geopolitical and regional affairs analyst who writes extensively on Afghanistan, Balochistan, and India, with a focus on regional security dynamics, insurgency movements, and South Asian strategic affairs.
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