Asad Mirza
Donald Trump’s re-entry in the White House is seen with a bated breath all over the world, especially the Muslim nations across the globe, as the world waits to see in which manner his current presidency will run. Will it be “America First” like the previous one or a rather tolerant one while dealing with the Muslim nations in particular.
Donald Trump has reclaimed the US presidency after a four-year absence, becoming the 47th American president and signalling a return to his approach of prioritising US interests and assessing alliances based on the strength and alignment of other nations.
Leaders such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman may anticipate smoother negotiations with reduced scrutiny, while Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to welcome a supportive, familiar ally in Donald Trump. However, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky may face challenges, as Donald Trump tends to prioritise countries that align with US policies or show strength. The same rule may apply to his future dealings with China’s Xi Jinping.
Besides the world leaders who will be seen as either friends or foes in Trump’s world, India and several other countries are likely to be viewed as winners with his return to the White House, but the biggest test of his presidency will be resetting the ties with Muslim nations, most of whom have grown more anti-America during the past four years.
Among the Muslim nations, the most obvious and an old-time ally of the US is Saudi Arabia. But under the stewardship of Crown Prince Saudi Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler, Trump would definitely like to revive efforts for a long-awaited security pact with the US. Trump, who played a key role in the Abraham Accords that established diplomatic ties between Israel and several Arab nations, is expected to focus on expanding this framework to include Saudi Arabia, also.
If Trump succeeds in brokering a peace deal between Israel and the kingdom, it could pave the way for the US to extend its security support to Saudi Arabia. This would allow the kingdom to shift its focus to economic development and reduce concerns over potential threats from Iran.
Another Muslim nation to watch for an upswing in bilateral ties would be Turkey. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may look forward to improved relations under a Trump presidency. Erdogan and Trump have maintained a friendly rapport, Trump’s return could provide Erdogan with more direct access to Washington.
Trump’s anti-war stance and focus on trade could benefit Erdogan, but his criticism of Israel may create tensions. Additionally, Turkey's recent moves to strengthen ties with China might present challenges in balancing its relations with the US.
Iran, another dominant player in the middle eastern politics has so far downplayed the impact of Trump’s return, but his presidency closes the door to diplomacy on its nuclear program, which Tehran had hoped could ease its sanctions-stricken economy.
A strong supporter of Israel, Trump applied a “maximum pressure” policy towards Iran during his first term. He may further isolate Iran by tightening the US sanctions he previously imposed. However, Trump will face a changed region, as Iran has recently strengthened ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which had backed the “maximum pressure” approach.
The livelihoods of Iranians will not be affected by the US election, government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani told reporters after a cabinet meeting in the capital, Tehran. “The US elections are not really our business. Our policies are steady and don’t change based on individuals. We made the necessary predictions before and there will not be change in people’s livelihoods,” she said.
As far as the Palestine issue is concerned, it is less clear how Trump would deal with the West Asian war. His steadfast support for Benjamin Netanyahu would certainly give him better leverage over him than a wavering Biden administration has had. Exploiting this to further an initiative that he commenced with the Abraham Accords will be a formidable test of his deal-making abilities.
He has backed Israel in its fight against Hamas in Gaza but has urged it to wrap up its offensive. Trump can be expected to continue the Biden administration’s policy of arming Israel. Trump has claimed he will bring peace to Ukraine, curb China's unfair trade practices, force allies to pay up, and prevent further shocks like the October 7 attacks in Israel — all because decision-makers around the world fear what he will do if they defy him.
About other Muslim countries, the US is assured of its continued relationship with other regional powers like Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, and the UAE.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi congratulated Trump on his electoral victory, Jordanian King Abdullah II also extended his congratulations to President-elect Trump, according to a post on his X account. President of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan sent a congratulatory message to Trump on his victory.
Other Muslim nations like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Malaysia also played the usual bonhomie tune while congratulating the new American president-elect. Afghanistan expressed hope that there would be concrete progress in relations between the two countries and that both countries would be able to open a new chapter of relations considering mutual interaction.
“It is expected that Mr. Trump will play a constructive role in ending the current war in the region and the world, especially in Gaza and Lebanon.” Noting the 2020 Doha peace deal signed during the previous Trump administration, which ended the 20-year-long “occupation” of Afghanistan, spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi said Kabul hopes the future administration in Washington will take “realistic” steps in the light of a “balanced” foreign policy so that there could be a “solid” development, vis-a-vis relations, between the two countries.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urged a “further” strengthening of the US-Pakistan partnership. Bangladesh’s transitional government chief Muhammad Yunus also congratulated Trump on his victory.
Calling Trump’s win a “remarkable political comeback,” Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said the US remains Malaysia’s largest source of foreign investment and a “vital player” in the Asia-Pacific region and Malaysia hopes that America “will reinvigorate its engagement with Southeast Asian region.
However, most of these congratulatory messages are routine messages and no one could exactly predict the future course of the American foreign policy, because for another four years it would be led by a maverick, who is usually not bogged down by the real politik or issues but by his own sense of profit. He may impose a travel ban on travellers from Muslim nations, as promised during his campaign or just like a statement made during the campaign while addressing the Arab-American Muslims in Michigan he may stop arms supply to Israel, an unfathomable promise to keep, but with Trump you really do not know, until after it has happened, just like his re-election.
(Asad Mirza is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on international and strategic affairs, environmental issues, an interfaith practitioner, and a media consultant.)
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