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| Regional security concerns and India’s strategic response | |
Fatima Baloch and Dr K N Pandita
Pakistan was established in 1947 through the partition of India by the British, rather than through a prolonged independence struggle marked by significant sacrifices against colonial rule. As a result, the country initially mishandled Balochistan, forcefully occupying it against the will of the Baloch people on March 27, 1948. Furthermore, Pakistan has struggled to function as a cohesive nation, comprising diverse ethnic groups such as Bengalis, Punjabis, Pashtuns and others.
The artificial nature of its creation by British and global influences has led to a history of military dominance and weak democratic leadership, culminating in the 1971 civil war and the creation of Bangladesh. Unfortunately, Pakistan has failed to learn from its past military and political blunders.
Today, the country faces multiple internal crises that threaten its very existence. In Pakistan-occupied Balochistan, a secular and moderate nationalist movement has risen since independence, continuously challenging state control. Meanwhile, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), religious extremism-led by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)-has gained control over vast territories, engaging in a relentless conflict with the Pakistan Army in an attempt to impose Afghan Taliban-style Sharia law.
This ongoing conflict not only presents a severe security challenge for Pakistan but also poses direct threats to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) and India. The situation warrants close attention, as its consequences could significantly impact regional stability.
Ever since the forced annexation of Balochistan on March 27, 1948, Pakistan’s political and military leadership has consistently mishandled Baloch grievances and the region’s issues. The state launched four major military operations in 1948, 1956, and 1974, and the ongoing campaign has now engulfed the entire province. These continued repressive measures have only intensified resistance and further strengthened the movement for Balochistan’s independence.
Pakistan has historically used religious groups as a counterforce to suppress secular Baloch nationalism, erode Baloch culture and traditions, and marginalize Baloch national languages, which are not taught in schools and colleges. Additionally, the state has relied on pro-military Sardars and Nawabs to maintain control over the region, ensuring that the Baloch people remain deprived of their vast natural resources, including gold, oil, gas, coal, chromite, iron ore, and marble. These resources are exploited primarily for the benefit of Punjab, while the local population continues to suffer from poverty and underdevelopment. The state has also instrumentalized religious clerics to undermine the Baloch independence movement.
Throughout each large-scale military operation, Pakistan has employed brutal tactics-destroying Baloch settlements, burning homes, killing students, and forcibly disappearing individuals, many of whom are held in torture cells to crush dissent. Despite this, the Baloch people have consistently fought for their independence.
While past uprisings led by figures such as Prince Abdul Karim in 1948, Babu Nauroz Khan Zehri in 1956, and Khair Bakhsh Marri and Attaullah Mengal in 1974 were relatively localized and short-lived, the current movement, which emerged under General Pervez Musharraf’s regime in the early 2000s, has evolved into a widespread resistance encompassing the entire province. Unlike previous revolts that were primarily led by tribal leaders, today’s struggle is driven by educated Baloch youth, particularly Baloch women, who remain predominantly secular and moderate in their ideology.
The leadership of the Baloch national movement has shifted from traditional Sardars to young, determined figures such as Dr. Mahrang Baloch, Bashir Zaib Baloch, and Dr. Allah Nazar. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has evolved into a structured and organized military force, comprising specialized units such as the Majeed Brigade, which includes divisions like the Self-Sacrificing Unit, the elite Fateh Squad, and the intelligence wing Zirab, operating with the structure of a formal army.
The vision of an independent Balochistan has become the defining aspiration of the younger generation, who now see it as an inevitable reality. As the momentum of the movement continues to grow, it marks a significant shift in the region’s political landscape.
Meanwhile, Pakistan currently lacks decisive leadership capable of effectively addressing its mounting political, economic, and security challenges. The ongoing insurgency led by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), and other associated groups continues to pose a serious threat to national stability. Additionally, the country faces escalating risks from religious militant organizations such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliates, further complicating an already fragile security situation.
In the early 2000s, the Pakistani government denied the existence of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) during military operations in Dera Bugti and Kohlu. However, the state’s recent official recognition of the BLA as a major security concern marks a significant policy shift. This acknowledgement raises concerns reminiscent of the 1971 events that led to the creation of Bangladesh.
Pakistan’s decision to escalate the BLA issue to the UN Security Council in 2025 highlights Balochistan’s growing prominence in international discourse. Additionally, the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025 ranks Pakistan as the world’s second most terrorism-affected country, with terrorism-related deaths surging by 45% in 2024 to 1,081, and attacks more than doubling from 517 to 1,099.
The Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) reported a sharp increase in civilian casualties in February 2025, with 55 civilians killed in 79 attacks nationwide-a 175% rise compared to January. These alarming trends have been acknowledged by key political figures, including opposition leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman and ruling party minister Rana Sanaullah.
These statistics reflect the worsening security crisis Pakistan faces, particularly in Balochistan, where insurgent activities continue to escalate. The military establishment and senior politicians must recognize that war has never provided a lasting solution to any conflict. History demonstrates that regional disputes and insurgencies are resolved through negotiation and diplomatic engagement rather than prolonged military campaigns. While conflicts may begin with force, their resolution lies in addressing underlying grievances and fostering dialogue.
History has repeatedly demonstrated that no military campaign can succeed against a movement with deep-rooted public support-especially one that has endured systemic oppression and made significant sacrifices. The persistence of such conflicts often results from state policies that marginalize communities and fail to address their fundamental rights.
Major global powers, including Russia, India, and China, have faced long-standing insurgencies in regions such as Chechnya, Kashmir, and Tibet. While they have employed counter-insurgency measures, they have also invested substantially in public welfare-prioritizing healthcare, education, judicial reforms, infrastructure, and employment. These efforts aim to prevent separatist movements from gaining widespread public support by addressing underlying grievances. By integrating economic development with governance reforms and respect for human rights, these nations have moved toward long-term stability.
In contrast, Pakistan’s approach is Characterised by economic deprivation, enforced disappearances, and extrajudicial measures that deepened resentment and strengthened separatist movements. The state’s repressive policies have fostered unity among the historically fragmented Baloch population, further escalating tensions. As a result, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), once a decentralized insurgent group, has evolved into a structured and organized force, increasingly perceived by many Baloch as a symbol of their struggle for identity and self-determination.
If Pakistan genuinely seeks stability, it must shift from a military-centric strategy to a comprehensive political and economic approach that prioritizes justice, development, and reconciliation. Without such a transformation, the conflict in Balochistan will likely intensify, posing long-term challenges to national unity and security.
Conclusion & Recommendations:
As a neighbouring country, India cannot remain a passive observer of the ongoing instability in Pakistan. The potential rise of a TTP-controlled Pakistan, along with developments in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK)-where the majority adheres to Shia and Sufi traditions- poses serious security challenges for the region.
Key questions arise:
Will the people of POK accept the TTP’s interpretation of Sharia rule, and can they remain unaffected by the unfolding conflict?
Will the TTP abandon its jihadist ideology against India, and is India prepared to counter-terrorism with the same resolve as Israel?
Should the secular and moderate Baloch nation continue to endure state atrocities despite repeated assurances of support from the Indian government?
The prospect of Pakistan transforming into a nuclear-armed theocratic state under TTP influence would have profound regional and global consequences, particularly for India. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s control over Balochistan is weakening, with groups such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) gaining both military and public support. This escalating conflict has intensified humanitarian concerns, with widespread human rights violations further destabilizing the region.
In light of these developments, India must reinforce its diplomatic engagement with the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan while extending cooperation in key areas such as military assistance, healthcare, education, and infrastructure. Additionally, both India and Afghanistan should explore strategies to address the humanitarian crisis in Balochistan.
Tensions between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan remain high along the Durand Line, with repeated cross-border strikes by Pakistan violating Afghan sovereignty. These actions have fueled anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan, further threatening regional stability. Given these dynamics, a coordinated approach to security and strategic interests is essential.
India has consistently voiced support for the Baloch national cause on international platforms. Recognizing its strategic imperatives, India should consider extending diplomatic and moral support to the Baloch nationalist movement in its pursuit of self-determination. The Baloch people have long sought India’s backing, and as a regional power, India has both a moral and strategic responsibility for its role in the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971. Furthermore, a TTP-controlled Pakistan would significantly escalate terrorism in Kashmir, heightening the risk of attacks under the “Ghazwa-e-Hind” ideology. In this context, the potential disintegration of Pakistan and the emergence of an independent, secular Balochistan could contribute to long-term regional peace and stability.
(KN Pandita is the former Director of the Center of Central Asian Studies at Kashmir University.)
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